Political Risk Assessment Methodology

Transparent, Fact-Based Political Risk Measurement

Mission: Provide accurate, real-time assessment of U.S. political stability using comprehensive data sources and expert-calibrated algorithms.

Risk Scale (0-100)

0-20

Exceptional Stability

20-40

High Stability

40-60

Moderate Risk

60-80

High Risk

80-100

Critical Risk

Current Baseline

The current baseline score of 72.0 represents expert assessment of U.S. political risk based on comprehensive analysis of events from January 1, 2025 through October 7, 2025. This baseline accounts for:

Government shutdowns and institutional dysfunction
Legal challenges and constitutional tensions
Economic stress and policy conflicts
Political polarization and social unrest
Foreign policy tensions and international relations

Data Sources

NYT Politics RSS

Real-time political news and analysis from The New York Times

DOJ Press Releases

Official Department of Justice announcements and legal actions

Federal Register

Executive orders, regulations, and government actions

Congressional Records

Legislative actions, hearings, and policy developments

Event Classification

Events are classified into categories based on their institutional impact and political significance:

Event Type	Description	Weight
Constitutional	Court rulings, constitutional challenges, institutional conflicts	High (1.3x)
Legislative	Congressional actions, policy changes, government operations	Medium (1.0x)
Executive	Presidential actions, executive orders, administrative decisions	Medium (1.0x)
State/Local	State government actions, local political developments	Low (0.7x)

Scoring Framework

Impact Scores

Events receive impact scores based on their measurable political impact:

Positive Scores (Bad News - Increases Risk)

+25.0: Catastrophic crisis (civil war, constitutional breakdown)
+15.0: Severe crisis (major constitutional crisis, widespread violence)
+8.0: Crisis (government shutdown, major legal challenges)
+3.0: Moderate instability (policy disputes, routine tensions)
+0.1: Minimal impact (routine political news)

Negative Scores (Good News - Decreases Risk)

-10.0: Major stability (crisis resolution, major agreements)
-3.0: Significant stability (peaceful resolutions, policy success)
-1.0: Minor stability (good news, small positive developments)

Sophisticated Risk Modeling

The algorithm applies multiple layers of analysis:

Institutional Weighting: Constitutional issues weighted higher than routine disputes
Escalation Assessment: Events with high escalation potential receive higher scores
Compounding Effects: Multiple crises amplify each other's impact
Baseline Sensitivity: Higher baseline scores increase sensitivity to new events

Fact-Based Assessment

Core Principle: Score only what actually happened, not what might happen. Like the Doomsday Clock, we measure current state, not predictions.

The algorithm focuses on:

Measurable Impact: Quantifiable effects on political stability
Current State: Present conditions, not future scenarios
Evidence-Based: Documented events with verifiable sources
Institutional Reality: Actual effects on government and society

Technical Implementation

AI Model

GPT-4.1 Nano with structured JSON output, temperature 0.1 for deterministic results

Update Frequency

Events processed every 5 minutes, score updated incrementally

Confidence Intervals

±8% confidence range based on model uncertainty and historical validation

Data Validation

All events validated for U.S. relevance, duplicate detection, and source verification

Quality Assurance

Expert Calibration: Baseline validated by political risk professionals
Bias Removal: No hard floors or expert anchors in prompts
Deterministic Output: Reproducible results with fixed parameters
Transparent Methodology: All scoring rules and weights published

Limitations

This assessment focuses on measurable political risk factors and may not capture:

Long-term demographic or economic trends
International events without domestic impact
Speculative or unverified information
Events outside the 48-hour assessment window

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